Getting Robbed at a 7-11

Getting Robbed at a 7-11

           I've often referenced a 'locals casino' as a place where locals go to play.  Generally speaking, you will find better paybacks in these casinos.  People who live in Las Vegas has lots of places to go if they want to play and it isn't often on the Strip.  Casinos like Red RockGreen ValleyRampart, Fiesta, etc... cater to the people who live here.  They offer higher paybacks because, well quite frankly, they can take more time to take your money.  And they know if you come in to play you might eat dinner there or catch a movie in their theater.  Maybe you'll even have a staycation and spend an overnight.

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The Straight Flush Theory

The Straight Flush Theory

           Recently, a friend came over to me and announced that earlier that week he got his first ever Straight Flush.  Now, he's not an avid regular, but he does go and play from time to time.  I also have to admit that this is the first time I've ever had a friend 'brag' about his first Straight Flush as opposed to his first Royal Flush.  Somewhat jokingly, I remarked to my friend that Straight Flushes are almost as rare as Royal Flushes.  He looked at me rather oddly and replied how Straight Flushes were of course far more common.

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Not Your Father's Oldsmobile

Not Your Father's Oldsmobile

            Earlier today, a colleague sent me a link to an article on The Motley Fool written by Jeff Hwang a few months ago, entitled The Millennial Problem: Why We (Don’t) Gamble.  One of the questions that was being asked a great deal at last week's Global Gaming Expo (G2E) was regarding the millenials and how to get them into the casinos to play.  As a father of one of these millenials, I get a lot of first-hand input on this topic.  I think this article covered alot of the same points that my son makes regarding what it would take to get his generation into the casino AND PLAYING.

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Global Gaming Expo Mid-Year Primer

Global Gaming Expo Mid-Year Primer

            One of the reasons why we see fewer and fewer independent inventors at the Global Gaming Expo is that the cost of the booths are so high.  This is not a complaint, just a reality.  Independent developers do not have thousands of dollars to spend on a booth.  Developing table games is relatively cheap.  I've worked with some inventors on developing video poker style games and you can't really do this for less than 100K given the cost of the machines themselves.  The two largest expenses for table games is for the patent work and for the math work.  Once those are done, you need a felt and a table sign and you're ready to go.

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The Volatility of 100 Play

The Volatility of 100 Play

           Recently, for my wife's birthday we went to see her favorite musical artist - Celine Dion.  We got to Caesar's a bit early and had about 30 minutes to kill.  We found a bank of 3 100-play video poker machines with 2 available and decided to play.  When you play 100-play machines, playing 1 cent per hand really means playing $1.00 per deal, which makes you almost a max-coin quarter player on a single play machine.  Unfortunately, penny machines don't tend to pay full-pay because there simply isn't enough house advantage for the casino to cover its cost on the machine.  Add to this the fact that we were playing on the strip, and I really didn't want to think how bad the payback was of the game we played.  It wasn't really about winning as much as it was about killing 30 minutes.

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Hot and Cold Streaks

Hot and Cold Streaks

           Today's topic comes courtesy of a friend of mine who asked me over dinner tonight if he was way off base by saying that sometimes it seems like video poker machines get into hot streaks.  You hit a bunch of solid hands and you just feel like you're going to get a Four of a Kind and all of a sudden you do.  He wanted to know if he was imagining things.

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Empty Suits

Empty Suits

           I was a big fan of the tv show White Collar.  One of the characters referred to members of the FBI and just about anybody else who worked in some corporate type of job as a "suit" and he clearly did not trust "suits."  This week's column reminds me of that character (Mozzy).  But, as is probably no surprise, it's not about guys who wear suits.  It's about the value of a suited hand in Poker.   In the end, I come to a similar conclusion - I don't trust suits.

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Skill Based Games

         Recently, I listened to an industry leader talk about some upcoming changes to casino games.  More specifically, he was talking about the proliferation of regulatory changes that were beginning to allow 'skill based' slot machines.  One of the first things he mentioned was that we've had skill based games for many years, namely video poker.  Okay, so I'm not fond of video poker being called a slot machine.  But, to regulatory agencies, this is the category they generally fall under.  The focus for this week is that this speaker so casually described video poker as a skill based game.

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Home Field Advantage

Home Field Advantage

           I woke up one morning a few months ago to find a text from my older son that had a link to an article about how the previous night was the first time in Major League history that all 15 HOME teams won their game.  My first reaction was "really?"  Baseball is well over 100 years old and in all that time the home team had not won every game of a scheduled day?  Then I realized that they were not talking about every home team winning, they were talking about all 15 home teams winning on a single day.  There have only been 15 home teams (i.e. 30 teams in the league) for a couple of decades.  The article referenced that going back to 1914 something like this had not occurred.  So, I took this to mean that on a night in which EVERY team was playing that all the home teams had not won their game.   This still seemed surprising until I gave it a bit more thought.

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Let It Ride Primer

Let It Ride Primer

            Let It Ride is certainly not as popular of a game as it once was.  But, you'll still find it in most casinos.  In reality, it is a relatively slow moving game as casino games go.  It might be a bit deceptive because to start each deal, you have to put up three wagers.  But unlike other games where you might do the same (Ultimate Texas Hold'em), the three units is the maximum you can wager and you will very rarely wager all 3 and not win.

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The Hazard of Short Pay Machines

           Last week, I glossed over the cost of playing less than full-pay machines.  This week, I'm going to jump into this topic a bit further.  Full-pay machines are the version of a particular type of video poker that have the commonly found highest paybacks.  The obvious example of this is what is called the 9-6 full pay jacks or better machine.  We call it 9-6 because this is the payout for the Full House and Flush.  What about the other pays?  Well since the bottom 4 pays are usually 4-3-2-1, we don't see much variation in these payouts.  Lowering any one of them would require an identical payout for two hands of different ranks.  Casinos try to avoid this where possible.

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In Search of Full-Pay Machines

           This past week, I received a letter from a reader who found some 'errors' in my Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas book.  I'm a bit skeptical when someone tells me these things as the numbers have been out there for so many years and looked at by so many people.  As it turns out, they were more like typos, which I guess technically is an error, but I put it into a different category.  Fortunately, neither of the typos would lead a Player to go very far astray.  One of the typos listed the number of Four of a Kinds from the Draw on a Three of a Kind.  Right below the typo is the correct number which was used in the actual calculation of the Expected Value.  So, it might have been a bit confusing, but most readers would probably realize it was just a typo.  Also, I don't think too many people are confused about how to play a Three of a Kind.  It is one of the more self-explanatory hands.

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More About Expected Value

         Maybe somebody beat my father to it, but I think the was the first person to use the expression 'expected value' when referring to gambling options.  The concept pre-dated him as my father was hardly the first person to analyze blackjack.  In blackjack, when a strategy was developed that told the Player to double on an 11 looking into a 10, this decision was based on which of the two options (hit or double) had the higher expected value.  Well, sort of.  Since the wager amounts are not the same when you hit vs. double, this had to be taken into account as well.  In reality, in blackjack, it is not possible for the expected value (without taking into account the wager size) to be higher on a double vs. a hit.  But that's for another time.

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Video Poker Perfection

            This column is mostly about video poker.  Ironically, I haven't taken a definitive count, but I'd guess and say that I write about video poker about 2/3 of the time.  My father's first full-length book was titled America's National Game of Chance:  Video Poker.  He used to occasionally write about how video poker should be made America's official game of chance.  I don't think he really expected Congress to take it up.  It was more about the popular notion of just how perfect of a game video poker is.

 

            Video Poker may look a lot like slots - or at least it did 20 years ago when the first video slot machines came out.  Back then, they each played on what appeared to be simplistic computer screens.  Nowadays, many slots play on gigantic flat screen monitors, while I think most video poker machines still use up the old-style computer monitors.  Very little is hi-tech in terms of what you see.  For as much as they used to look like one another, the similarity ended there.  Slot machines are 100% luck.  You can't argue this.  This might be exactly what you want and thus it is perfect for you.  My problem has never been that there is no skill factor.  It is that you have ZERO knowledge about the game.  Two slot machines sitting side by side with identical paytables might have two totally different paybacks and you'll never know.  It is just the way they are programmed.  A week later, the two machines and their respective paybacks could've been swapped or changed to be completely different - and you'll never know.

 

            This is not possible with video poker.  In most of the United States, video poker machines MUST play as randomly as if you took a deck of cards and used them instead.  There can be no manipulation of the frequencies of winning hands.  The frequencies are determined by the nature of the deck and the paytable which drives player strategy.  Since these are both completely known, the payback of a video poker table can be calculated down to the most exact figure.  The only way it can be changes is if the deck is changed (i.e. add a Joker or make something wild) or the paytable is changed.  Both of these types of changes would be immediately known to the Player and again allow for an exact calculation of the payback.  You can't change the payback of a video poker machine without the Player knowing about it.

 

            The result is that video poker plays far more like a table game than a slot machine.  Table games generally have some form of strategy, too.  Most use a deck (or shoe) of cards, with the composition known to the Player.  Payouts and betting rules are all spelled out.  As a result, every table game has a known payback too that cannot be changed without changing the paytable.  Video poker shares with slots the medium in which it is played (video machine) and speed of play.  You're not getting hundreds of hands of a table game dealt in an hour no matter how fast everyone is playing!

 

            The fact that video poker plays more like a table game is what makes video poker so fascinating.  Now we throw one additional layer on top of our argument to make it America's National Game of Chance.  The number of different combinations of games is nearly endless.  Blackjack has several rules that can be done as either X or Y.  When you look at ALL the possible combinations, there might be in theory a couple of hundred ways that it can be played (many of these combinations don't exist in the real world).  Also, some of these rules don't impact the game much or at all.  Whether you can split to 2 hands, 3 hands or 4 hands simply doesn't change much in our strategy.  Yes, it impacts the payback (very slightly), but that is all.

 

            For most other table games, you're only going to find a handful of possible paytables out there across the country.   Ultimate Texas Hold'em has only so many Blind paytables and Sidebet paytables.  None of them impact the strategy we use to play the game.  So, again, they change the payback, but they don't really change the game.

 

            Video poker on the other hand has a seemingly endless variety of games.  Changing the paytable slightly might make slight changes to our strategy without changing the nature of the game much.  But, if you start ramping up the payouts for Quads and push them higher by adding in the kicker value, you not only change the strategy, you change the entire feel of the game.  If you are a regular player, you know all too well how different bonus poker is from double double bonus poker.  Reducing the payout on the Two Pair from 2 to 1 and increasing greatly the payouts on the Quads turns a relatively slow game into a high volatility one.  You don't win at double double unless you get your four of a kinds.  In fact, you still may have a tough time winning unless you can pick up some of the bonus four of a kinds. 

 

            The bottom line is that video poker offers something for every type of player while staying true to a game based on a combination of chance and skill.  There is the relatively low volatility of jacks or better to the far greater thrill of double double bonus.  There are one-play machines all the way up to 100-play machines.  You can play with Deuces Wild, Joker wild or both!  They might all be video poker, but these might as well all be different games.  Nothing else in the casino compares to video poker and what it can offer the Player.

A Sure Thing

A Sure Thing

            Several weeks ago, I wrote about a friend who texted me late one night looking for some video poker advice.  I wound up taking a picture of a strategy chart and texting him back.  Just to be clear, this was a good personal friend.  Please don't send me e-mails expecting immediate turnaround!  This past week, he needed more help and call this time.  He was a dealt a 4-Card Straight Flush which was also a Straight and wanted to know what the right play was.  Just to make sure I gave him the right answer, I looked it up and told him the correct play and what the expected values of each hand was.

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Long Odds

Long Odds

          When playing jacks or better video poker, all it takes is to have ONE High Card and you can eliminate the choice of throwing all five cards.  My father, Lenny Frome, called this a Razgu hand.  Shortly before my mother died, I actually found out that the term was created (or at least popularized) by a friend of theirs.  A Razgu is just a hand in which you wish you could start all over again.  It is to poker what a mulligan is to golf.

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Unperplexing Pai Gow Poker

Unperplexing Pai Gow Poker

           I remember my first trip to Las Vegas, when I was 18.  It was between my Freshman and Sophomore years at college.  My parents had just announced that they were going to retire to Las Vegas and they wanted my brother and I to see what all the fuss was about.  We stayed at the Tropicana (back when it was still gold and only had one tower!).  The goal of the week was to show us around as much of the city as they could.  Since they were planning on moving here, you would have thought the emphasis was on the residential areas.  We saw that too, but as a first time visitor to Las Vegas, we spent most of the time doing what tourists do and saw about everything there was to see on the strip and downtown.

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Ultimate Texas Hold'em Complexity

Ultimate Texas Hold'em Complexity

           This past week, I received 2 e-mails regarding Ultimate Texas Hold'em.  That's a good sign that I have found my topic for the week.  The first e-mail was from a reader who saw my column from several weeks ago about the strategy for UTH for the 4x wager.  I have frequently written that Players are too timid when making that 4x wager.  I understand the reasons why.  If you are at a $10 table, you already have $30 on the table (ante, blind and Trips Bonus).  $40 more will make you a $70 Player and that might not be what you bargained for.  But, the strategy dictates that you should make this wager about 45% of the time, which means you can either be prepared for it, or prepared to earn nowhere near the 99+% payback that UTH can offer.

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Expert Advice

Expert Advice

            The internet is a wonderful thing.  You can look up almost anything in an instant.  You can get sports scores, movie times, restaurant maps and loads of news.  Of course, one of the problems is that the quality of news on the internet is not quite what it used to be in the printed newspapers.  I'm an avid baseball fan (Mets specifically).  The number of times I've read a recap of a game and wondered if the writer had even watched the game is staggering.  The article will have wrong information about what happened in the game and wrong background information.  This past season, I flipped through a headline that blared "(Ryan) Howard hits eighth home run against the Mets."  Interesting as Howard plays for the Phillies and the Mets played the Cardinals that night!  It turns out the home run was against the Rockies.

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