A Game Changer?

            For more than 20 years, my father and I have implored our readers to kick the slot habit.  The biggest reason for this is twofold.  First, the paybacks on slots are just too low.  If I recall correctly, the State of Nevada reported that the average payback on a slot machine last year was in the 92% range.  You just don't stand much of a chance.  The second reason is that you have no clue what the payback is of any given machine.  So, even though 92% is an average and there might be some games paying even as high at 98% (not very likely), you have absolutely NO WAY of knowing which machine is doing this.  For the moment, I'll leave off that playing a game with absolutely no strategy is not one that I find very appealing to spend my time at.

            Well, this past week at the Global Gaming Expo, I had a conversation with the founder of a company who appears to be trying to change some of these problems with slots.  I find his attempts extremely noble.  I'm not necessarily convinced that the casinos are going to support what he is suggesting - but time will tell.

            The company trying to revolutionize the slot industry is called "Pharos Gaming" out of New York City.  The gentleman I spoke to was Frank Abramopoulos and he is a Director there.  The concept is rather simple.  Every one of their "Open Label" machines is given a unique digital code that is on the screen.  A Player can then access a 'app' on his smartphone and enter this code.  This app will return to the Player significant information about the slot machines.  Most importantly, it will tell the Player the payback of the slot machine.  As the company's slot machines are all single-machine Progressives, it will use the current size of the jackpot to calculate the precise theoretical payback of the machine. 

            With this single concept, Pharos Gaming has eliminated at least one of the basic problems with slot machines.  Any player can now know the payback of a machine instantaneously.   This is certainly progress.  But, even if you know the payback of a game, I don't recommend that you start playing games at 92%.  However, because Pharos Gaming's Open Label machines are stand alone progressives, the true payback of the machine to a single Player is fully dependent on the size of that jackpot at any point in time. 

            So, in theory, a Player can walk up to a bank of machines, punch in each of the special codes and then only play the game that shows a current payback of over 100%.  This has been going on in the video poker world for years.  The only difference is that for video poker, you don't really need a smart phone, you just need to remember the payback of a few base paytables and learn how to approximate the current payback based on a simple formula (I'll cover this again in a future column).  But, progress is progress.

            Explaining the math behind Progressives has always been a tricky proposition.  I have worked on many sidebets for table games that utilize Progressives and I've been amazed at how few in the industry fully understand how it works.  I won't go through the details here, but the short version is that you essentially have two paybacks.  One is the long-term payback which is the one the casino is worried about.  The other is the specific payback at any point in time that the Player should be focused on.  In the end, all the people who play on the Progressive but don't win it are playing below the long-term payback and the person who finally wins the Progressive is playing above it - IF the jackpot grows to be larger than average (which will happen roughly half the time).

            In the case of Open Label, the Players that are oblivious to the feature that allows you to check the payback are essentially feeding the machine so that those that are 'in the know' can come along when the game goes positive and win the jackpot.  This works so long as you have the two classes of Players - oblivious and in the know.  If EVERY Player who ever plays these games became an 'in the know' player, the model would fall apart.  NO ONE would ever play the slot when the jackpot is near the reset value, as the machine would probably be playing at 92% or less.

            So, how does this entire system differ from video poker and its progressives?  From what Frank told me, the Progressives on their open label add a large amount of each wager to the jackpot (he didn't specify specifically how much).  Mathematically, this can increase the likelihood that the game will go positive - assuming the hit frequency of the jackpot is low enough.  The bad news is that the only way to accomplish this is for the base payback at reset to be fairly low.  This requires that they continue to get those oblivious players even while they are marketing towards the more knowledgeable ones.

            In the case of video poker, the payback at reset is considerably higher than its slot machine counterpart and the amount of money added for each wager to the jackpot is relatively small.  Thus, video poker machines do not often get much above 100% (if at all) unless the base game is very close to 100%.  At the same time, this means that the Player who doesn't hit the jackpot is not giving up quite as much to the one Player who does.

            I tip my cap to what Pharos Gaming is trying to accomplish.  Any means by which Players can gain more information about the game they want to play is a good thing.  Also, there is some merit (and profit) in chasing games with paybacks over 100%.  However, a slot is still a slot and your chances of hitting that jackpot will be based 100% on luck.  With video poker, an Expert Player can gain advantage over other Players by modifying his strategy as the jackpot goes up and increase his chances of winning it.

            Despite this change, I still implore you all to kick the slot habit and try video poker instead.  To help you along this path and to celebrate our arrival in Las Vegas, we're offering up some specials!  You can order any or all of our top video poker titles for just $6.95 each - Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas, Video Poker: America's National Game of Chance or Winning Strategies for Video Poker.  Send a check or money order to Gambatria, P.O. Box 36474, Las Vegas, NV 89133.  All prices include shipping and handling.

The Next Big Game

            Part 2 of my preview of table games at the 2011 Global Gaming Expo (G2E) will focus on two games that I did the math on.  Both of the games come from Shuffle Master and both with also be on display at their booth this year.   From what I understand, the 'live' table half of their booth will contain ONLY brand new games.  Up this week, Ultimate Three Card Poker and San Lo Poker.

Ultimate Three Card Poker

            If you only take a quick look, you may think this is just Three Card Poker.  If you look closely, you'll see a variety of twists have been added in.  The betting structure if vastly different.  To begin play, the Player must make an Ante AND Blind wager (equal aize).  The Player and the Dealer will each get their three cards, but now one of the Dealer's cards is turned face up.  This is a lot of information given it is just a 3-card hand.  As in the original Three Card Poker, the Player may now either Fold (surrendering BOTH his initial wagers) or make a Play bet.  If he has a Pair or Better, he may make a Play bet of 3x his Ante. 

            Qualifying still exists in Ultimate Three Card Poker, but the rules are a bit different.  If the Dealer does not have at least a Queen High or Better, the Ante pushes and all other wagers stay in action.  If the Dealer has a Queen High or Better, then all wagers are in action.  If the Player beats the Dealer, his Ante and Play win even money (unless the Dealer did not qualify in which case the Ante pushes).  The Blind will push if the Player beats the Dealer with less than a Flush and will win odds if he wins with a Flush or better.

            The critical thing to know about Ultimate Three Card Strategy is FORGET Q-6-4. Knowing one of the Dealer's cards make a whole lot of difference in what we Play vs. Fold.   I'll cover the detailed strategy at a later date, but I can tell you that Ultimate Three Card Poker affords the Player a strong 98.81%.  It will, however, require that you learn a strategy more complex than Q-6-4, but it is one that you can master easily.

San Lo Poker

            The first time I saw Pai Gow Poker, I thought it was some sort of high roller game, requiring a large bankroll.  When I found out more about it, it turns out it is likely the slowest game in the casino - at least from a bankroll perspective.  Around 40% of the hands end in a push with the Player winning 1 hand and the Dealer winning one hand.

            If you want to eliminate this condition, split the cards into 3 separate hands instead of 2 and require the Player to win 2 out of 3 hands to win.  Now, there is no such thing as a push.  To keep things more exciting, deal only 6 cards instead of 7 and you have San Lo Poker.  You can't get much easier than this.  The Player makes a single wager and is dealt 6 cards.  He must break it down into a 3-Card Hand, a 2-Card Hand and a 1-Card Hand (also called High, Mid and Low hands).  As in Pai Gow, the High Hand must outrank the Mid Hand which must outrank the Low Hand.

            The Dealer will also be dealt 6 cards and break his hand down according to the House Rules (which I helped develop).   As these rules are fairly complex, San Lo is played on tables with Shuffle Master's i-verify which has card recognition software built-in and will tell the Dealer how to set the cards.  A Player may opt to have his hand set the same way and can ask the Dealer for assistance to do this.

            The human playable strategy is still being developed, but at this point, I'm fairly certain that to maximize the payback, the Player does NOT always want to mimic the House Rules.  With a goal of winning two out of three, sometimes it pays to sacrifice one to help win the other two. 

            The payback of San Lo is just under 99% but there is no messy commission to deal with.  I'll cover this game in more detail in the coming weeks.  In the meantime, I suggest you stop by the Shuffle Master booth and check this one out.  It's an exciting twist that adds a bit more thinking to the classic Pai Gow Poker game.

            If you make it to the G2E this year, please feel free to drop me a line (ElliotFrome@gamingtoday.com) if you see any other table games along with any comments you may have.  I'll be wandering around the show floor for most of the three days, checking out the next big game!

Coming Soon to a Casino Near You?

           Every inventor thinks their new game is going to be a sure-fire hit.  It's taken Three Card Poker about 15 years to get to 1500 or so tables.  Everyone else is sure they can do it in 2 to 3 years.  So what, if so far, no other game has even come close.  I believe the record for fastest game to 100 tables belongs to Ultimate Texas Hold'em and that took just over a year.

            So, in reality, I can't say with any certainty that any of the games I'm going to discuss today will make it to a casino any time soon.  They will, however, be on display at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) next week, at the Shuffle Master booth.  I didn't work on these games, so I can't give much insight into the strategy or the math (yet).  If you're going to the show this year, make sure to check these games out.  Next week, for the G2E edition, I'll review a couple of games I did the math on and be able to go more in depth on each.

Cincinnati 7 Card Stud

The base game is a simple game going head-to-head against the Dealer.  You make an Ante and Blind wager.  You get to look at the first 6 cards of what will eventually be a 7-card hand.  After reviewing your 6-cards, you can Fold or Play 1x or 2x your Ante.  The Dealer reveals his 7-cards and you get to see your 7th card.  If the Dealer beats you (best 5 out of 7 cards), you lose all your wagers.  If you beat the Dealer, the Ante and Play pay even money and the Blind pays according to the paytable.  There is also a bonus sidebet that pays if your 7-card hand is Three of a Kind or better.

The twist in Cincinnati 7 is the second optional sidebet.  Here, you are playing against all the other Players as well.  Top hand takes the enitre pot - as long as it at least a Two Pair or Better.   The Dealer participates just like every other Player - including putting up a wager each hand.  If nobody has Two Pair or better, all the wagers carry over to the next round.  Obviously, you can't jump into the middle of a pot.  If you skip a round, you're out until someone wins the pot.  Get a mini hot streak and you can increase your bankroll quickly.  It should also be noted that this sidebet has NO house advantage.  You're playing true odds against everyone.

Six-Card Poker

Another relatively simple to understand game against the Dealer.  Player makes an Ante Wager and is dealt 6 cards.  The Dealer is dealt 6 cards as well and turns over three of them, face up.  Player can now Fold or Play, making another wager equal to the Ante.  The Dealer reveals the rest of his hand.  If the Dealer does not have an A-K or better, the Ante pushes and the Play wager is won or lost depending on who has the best hand (best 5 out of 6 cards).  If the Dealer does have an A-K or better, then both Ante and Play wagers are won or lost depending on who has the best hand.

There is also an Aces Up sidebet that pays if the Player's hand is a Pair of Aces or better.  This sidebet pays even if the Player folds.  Yes, you will Fold with a Pair of Aces if the Dealer's three upcards are Three of a Kind.

Money Market

This one is a bit more complex and a little reminiscent of Mississippi Stud.  To begin Play, you make an Ante Wager and get 4 cards.  You must now either Fold or discard 1 card AND make a wager of 1-4x your Ante.  The Dealer will now expose the 1st of 3 community cards.  You must now either Fold or make a wager of 1-3x your Ante.  Dealer will expose the 2nd of 3 community cards and you will either Fold or make a wager 1-2x your Ante.

The Dealer will expose the final community card and then expose his 3 cards.  Best 5 out of 6 cards wins.  The Ante will pay according to the paytable.  All other wagers pay even money.

The betting structure on this one means you'll be wagering at least 4 units if you stay in until the end and might wager as much 10 units.  Unlike Mississippi Stud, you might have a likely winner, but you will rarely have a guaranteed winner.

There is also a one-way bad beat sidebet.  If you lose with a Pair of Jacks or Better, you win this sidebet.  This wager stays in action even if you Fold your base wager.

If you make it to the show and get to check out these games, feel free to let me know your thoughts about any or all of them.  You can reach me at elliotfrome@gamingtoday.com or on my blog at gambatria.blogspot.com.

Total Opposites: Slots and ATMs

I’m writing this article from my new place in Las Vegas! I’ve got boxes everywhere and can’t find half of my stuff, but none of that will deter me from writing my weekly column.

I figure my new beginning here in Las Vegas is a perfect idea for a topic. What should you do when you’re just beginning to go to the casino?

I know one thing you shouldn’t do – play the slot machines. No game requires less knowledge than slots, so that’s why a lot of beginners wind up there. Few, if any, games give you less of a chance to win.

That’s why I think a good place to begin is with video poker. No, video poker is NOT a slot machine. It may look a little like a slot machine, but just because it has a computer screen and some buttons doesn’t make it a slot machine.

Perhaps we should consider ATM machines to be slots as well?

Video poker machines work on a totally different premise than slots. Video poker machines use random number generators to simulate dealing actual playing cards. Slot machines use random number generators to simulate nothing – they simply use it to pick which symbols will appear, but none of it is based on any actual anything.

You see 20 different symbols but that doesn’t mean they will appear with equal frequency. With video poker, you have 52 cards and each one should appear with equal probability.

It is this difference that makes all the difference. Because we know that a video poker machine simulates an actual deck of cards, we can create computer programs and math models to tell us absolutely everything about the machine.

Of course, we don’t know exactly which card will show up when, but we use probabilities to tell us the likelihood of any given card and, in turn, any given hand from showing up. It is from this we are able to develop actual strategies for which cards to hold and which cards to discard.

To start with, we know there are "only" 2,598,960 possible initial 5-card deals from a standard 52-card deck. Each one of these combinations has an equal likelihood of being dealt to the player. For each of these, we know there are 32 different ways to play the hand, ranging from discarding no cards to discarding them all.

Obviously, many of these ways would make little sense. If you are dealt three 6’s, a 10 and a 2, you’re not going to discard the 6’s. But, to be absolutely sure, our computer program takes a look at all 32 ways and determines which is the best way to play the hand.

The value it assigns to each is called the "expected value" or EV for short. The EV is calculated by looking at every possible draw that can occur given which cards were initially dealt and which ones were held.

The program sums up the payouts for each of these hands and divides by the total number of draws. We then look at the expected value for each of the 32 possible draws. Whichever has the highest EV is the proper way to play that hand.

By looking at the results of all 2.6 million hands, we are able to summarize the strategy into what is called a strategy table. This is what a player must learn in order to play each hand correctly.

As some of you are reading this, you may think this all sounds very complicated and not very beginnerish. But, it really is far less complex than it sounds. Most of the hard work is done by people like me.

Your part is to learn the strategy table and to use the information from it to play each hand. About 75% of the hands will be fairly obvious and the remaining 25% may take some memorization to get correct.

I suppose the alternative is to just keep playing slots. As I questioned earlier, if you think video poker is slots, you might as well consider a slot machine to be an ATM – even if they are complete opposites. The ATM gives you your money and the slot machines take it away!

Deja Vu All Over Again!

            How many times does a person move from northern New Jersey to Las Vegas in a lifetime?

            It was the summer of 1985 and the plans had been in the works for months.  My parents called me in my dorm one night to tell me that they’ve decided they were retiring to Las Vegas that summer.  At the time, they thought that I might transfer to UNLV or one of the UC schools.  But, having made many friends and in the middle of pursuing my degree, transferring just didn’t seem prudent.  I decided that I would stay at SUNY@Albany. 

            When I got home for summer break, I found much of our house already packed up.  Because they were moving across country, I convinced my parents to allow me to live off campus for my final two years, figuring I would need a place to stay at times when the dorms were closed.  In June, we took a trip up to Albany to set up my new room with much of my furniture from my room at home.  In early August, we began the 10-day drive across country.  We went thru Wilkes-Barre, Toledo, Chicago, St. Louis, Tulsa, Amarillo, Albuquerque, Flagstaff and Kingman before arriving in Las Vegas. 

            Once we arrived, I spent an additional two to three weeks in Las Vegas before flying back to New York to get ready for school.  For the next two years, Las Vegas was essentially my home.  For the following ten years or so, I would visit 2-3 times a year.  My parents had an incredible ‘retirement’ in Las Vegas.  Well, maybe retirement isn’t the right word.  My father would go on to become the ‘godfather’ of video poker and change the casino floor forever with his work on games like Three Card Poker, Let It Ride, Caribbean Stud and Spanish 21.

            It is now the summer of 2011, 26 years later.  To quote Yogi Berra – it’s déjà vu all over again.  My wife and I have spent the last 6 months staging our house and packing up our stuff in anticipation of our move to Las Vegas.  We promised that once my eldest son was in college that we would head out of the New York area.  After researching countless cities, we decided that Las Vegas had the most to offer us.  Most of our friends think we’re going because of my profession.  There are benefits there as well.  The ability to see games in person will certainly help me write about games and develop new games.  But, the primary reasons dealt with the quality of life that Las Vegas affords us.

            As I write this column, we are 2-3 days away from the ‘hurricane of the century’ hitting us almost directly.  Of course, it is expected to come in as a Category 1 hurricane, so what we will endure will be seem like a light rain compared to what those in New Orleans dealt with a few years ago.  I’m likely to see more rain this weekend than I will the next 2-3 years in the Las Vegas valley.  If this wasn’t bad enough, we actually had an earthquake here too this past week.  I personally didn’t feel a thing, but about an hour before it hit, we were at the top of the Empire State Building, where I am told it WAS felt.  I can’t really say that I won’t deal with the same in Las Vegas.  I was there in 1992 when a significant earthquake hit between Los Angeles and Las Vegas and felt my parent’s apartment get shaken up quite a bit.

            Several months ago, I announced that I was changing the name of Compu-Flyers to Gambatria.  I knew then, that that was the beginning of a good deal of change in our lives.  In about 2-3 weeks when we arrive in Las Vegas, the end phase of that change will begin.  Compu-Flyers, now known as Gambatria will return to Las Vegas after a 13-year hiatus.  From a base of operations in Las Vegas, I hope to be able to  write about more up and coming games and to write in more detail about what I see going on in the casinos.

            I hope that Las Vegas will be as good to my family as it was to my parents.  I hope that I can be as good for Las Vegas as my father was. 

Don't Try These in the Casino!

            We are all familiar with the phrase that “nothing is certain but death and taxes.”  This quote is quite important to the world of gambling.  As I discussed in last week’s column, even when the Player has an advantage over the casino in a particular game, it does NOT mean that he will always walk away a winner.  In similar fashion, not every bad gambling idea leads to an immediate loss.  Even if you choose to hit a 20 while playing blackjack, every so often you WILL hit an Ace and it will help you win when you would otherwise lose (well technically it can only help you push when you would have lost or win when you would have pushed).  But, the bottom line is, even if it works out once in a while – it still doesn’t make it a good idea.

            This week, I’m going to look at a few “common” bad ideas that you will see when you walk into a casino.

1.  Splitting 10’s into a bust card

            The Dealer has a 4, 5 or 6 up and you’ve got a pair of 10’s.  The dealer is going to bust anyhow, so why not split up your 10’s and draw two more 10’s and crush the house.  Well, first of all, if you split the first two 10’s and you draw two more, you’d split again!  If it’s a good idea the first time, it must be a good idea the 2^nd time too! 

            What makes this one so dangerous is that in the end, it IS a winning proposition.  The problem is, relative to just holding the 20, it is a TERRIBLE decision.  If you were dealt 100,000 Pair of 10’s (against a 6) and were to just stick as you are supposed to, you would win 67,600 units.  This means you win the hand almost 84% of the time.  If you decide to get split happy and just keep splitting 10’s, you’ll win a total of about 30,700 units or less than half as much – all while risking more than 3 times as much money.  So, it might feel the good the once in a while when the Dealer busts and you win 3 or 4 hands at once.  But when the Dealer winds up with a 17, 18 or 19 and you realize you just below a good hand for 2 or 3 or 4 lousy ones, the euphoria will quickly disappear.  No matter how you slice it, your bankroll will suffer in the long run.

2.  Playing a Jack High hand in Three Card Poker

            Several years ago, I was sitting out a Three Card Poker table when a woman told another Player that generally she plays only a Queen High, but once in a while you can beat the Dealer with a Jack High hand.  Actually, NO, you can’t.  If you have a Jack high hand, the only way you ‘win’ is if the Dealer does not Qualify.   In this case, your Play wager will push and your Ante wager will win.  This will happen 5,277 of the 18,424 possible Dealer hands.  You will be wagering 2 units in the hopes of winning one and it will occur far less than 30% of the time.

            With 18,424 possible Dealer hands, if you fold, you will lose 18,424 units.  If you Play, you will risk 36,848 units and win back only 15,831 for a net loss of just over 21,000 units.  It may be painful to Fold and if you do Fold, you will NEVER get paid any ‘winners’ for a Jack High hand, but your bankroll WILL thank you because it will last that much longer.

3.   Betting 4x only on Pairs when Playing Ultimate Texas Hold’em (UTH)

            Proper strategy for UTH calls for betting 4x on a significant number of hands.  The strategy DOES include Pairs of 3’s or better, but also includes any hand with an Ace and a variety of Suited and Unsuited Hands with a Jack or better (full full list, go to my website www.gambatria.com).  I’ve heard of Players playing properly while Dealers tell them they are playing too aggressively.   The payback of UTH is 99.25% when you use Expert Strategy.  If you choose to bet 4x ONLY when you are dealt a Pair of 3’s or better, the payback goes down about 3% to 96.25%.  Put another way, the house advantage increases 400%!

            One could say that casino games are developed with these types of ‘traps’.  But the reality is that they are only traps if you fall into them.  The proper strategy is readily found for virtually every casino game.  You can either choose to learn them or follow your own bad idea. 

            Check out my website at www.gambatria.com for tips on how to play many table games.

Taking the Mystery Out of the Machine!

            I get a daily e-newsletter from the American Gaming Association.  This past week, while leafing through it, a column about debunking the myths of the slot machine caught my attention.  I clicked on the full story and wound up at this PDF:

http://www.americangaming.org/files/aga/uploads/docs/taking_the_mystery_out_of_the_machine_brochure_final.pdf

            My father and I have desperately tried to get people to break the slot habit for more than 2 decades, so I was quite interested to see what myths they were referring to.  Obviously, you don’t put together a flyer like this unless you are hoping to attract people to playing slots.

           

            Ironically, while I doubt it was what was intended, I could not have put together a better flyer myself.  I agree with virtually everything on it, and I think it does a wonderful job of telling people why you should NEVER PLAY SLOTS!

Here are some points on the flyer:

Players can determine a machine’s odds by counting the symbols on each reel.

False.  Because multiple numbers generated by the RNG can correspond to the same symbol on

a reel, there are many more number combinations possible than are visible to the eye. Even though there may be only 15 symbols on a reel, there can be thousands of virtual stops.

            I couldn’t possibly add to the above statement.  What you see is NOT what you get with slots.  With Video Poker, what you see is EXACTLY what you get.

88-98: The overall percentage that a machine will return to players in the long run. For every $100 wagered, players might lose approximately $2 to $12 over time.

            88%???  That’s about 7 points below what ANY video poker pays.  But, that’s not really the main point.  The real point here is that if you had every slot machine in the world available to you, you would have NO WAY of knowing which is 88% and which is 98%.  Put a video poker machine in front of me, show me the paytable and I’ll tell you the payback with absolute certainty.

            And here is the scariest fact on the flyer:

59: The percentage of Americans who consider slot machines their favorite casino game

            Really? 59%???  No wonder they keep putting up billion dollar casinos!  Please folks, it is time to break the slot habit and keep more of your own money.  Play video poker.  Play table games.  Don’t play slots!

            

The Payback Mirage

             The battle between the short-term and the long-term, where gambling is concerned, is an epic struggle and so totally misunderstood by most.  Why is this a problem?  Because it is critical to understand what to expect when you’re playing.  If you don’t, you may begin to believe that something is wrong about what you are doing and this can lead you to deviate from proper play.  When you do that, you may help yourself in the short-term, but this will eventually give way to damage done in the long run.

            To try and prove this point, I ran some video poker simulations.  I played 100,000 3-hour sessions of video poker.  I assumed each session consisted of 2100 hands of video poker (700 hands per hours).  I started with a full-pay jacks or better game.  What did I find?

            Well, in total, 210 million hands of video poker were played.  At the end of all these hands, the payback was essentially exactly where we would expect it to be – 99.52%.  If the simulation used max-coin quarters, the result would be a loss of about 1.26 million dollars.  Of course, based on 210 million hands, it would also take 34 years of 24 hour/day play to get to this point.  Quite frankly, this is MORE than a lifetime of play.

            When we look at some short term results, we find that the Player will lose about 68.5% of the session and win 31.5% of the time.  So, even when playing a full-pay jacks or better machines, the Player can expect to lose 2 out of 3 times when playing for 3 hours.  Even though the edge is less than 0.5% for the house, the Player will walk away a loser far more often than a winner.

            So, is it any wonder that I advocate playing games with a 100% payback or better.  To prove this point, I created a fictitious machine whereby the payouts are the same as full-pay, EXCEPT the Four of a Kind pays 30 instead of only 25.  The simulation showed that after 210 million hands, the overall payback was 100.70%, which is what we would expect.  So, this game is a bit more positive than full-pay is negative.  Thus, the results of our sessions should probably be flip-flopped from our full-pay version, right?

            Not exactly.   We find that even with the payback of 100.7%, the Player will STILL lose 58% of his sessions!  That’s right.  The Player will still lose nearly 6 out of 10 sessions while playing a game that is significantly in his favor.   Despite this 1.2% turnaround (from 0.5% negative to 0.7% positive), the Player will wind up winning only an additional 1 session out of 10 and still lose a significant majority of his sessions.  How can this be?

            These results occur because when playing video poker, our wins will, on average be larger than our losses.  Of course, even this is a bit deceiving.  What really happens is that every so often we have a HUGE victory, while our losses tend to be more moderate.   In sessions where we hit a Royal Flush, our winnings will be far larger than virtually ANY loss we would ever have.  As a result, we lose more sessions than we win, but those big winning nights tip the scale back in our favor.  When we play a 99.5% game, it only is enough to bring it back closer to even.  If we play a game with a payback of OVER 100%, those big wins are enough to turn the game positive in the long run, even if in the short run we are losing more than winning – in terms of sessions, not dollars.

            As I said earlier, it is critical to understand how this all works.  Otherwise, it is way too easy to simply give up on playing the right strategy if you feel you are losing too often.  While we all play in ‘sessions’, in the end, all that matters is how we are doing over the long run.  In the second example (the 100.7% game), would you really be upset to lose 58% of your session, but  wind up winning 1.85 million dollars over a lifetime?

            One last point for those of you who would try to use the information here as ‘proof’ that the long run is really too long.  I ran each machine for a mere 1000 sessions or 3000 hours of play.  This could be 3-5 years of play for a local in Las Vegas.  While there is a bit more deviation from the long term expectations, on the whole the numbers still prove my point.  The overall paybacks for the games were 99.26% and 100.49% respectively.  The win frequencies for a session were 70.8% and 58.7%, respectively.  So, even over a much shorter period than multiple lifetimes, we will begin to see a pattern develop whereby the Player loses more sessions than he wins, but can still end up a winner in the long run.

Royal Alterations

            Last week’s column discussed how by altering your strategy, you can make Royals appear more often.  Let’s face it, by altering your strategy, you can make any hand you want to appear more often.  Just because Royal Flushes are the highest paying hand does NOT mean that by getting more of them you will automatically win.  If your goal is the bragging rights as the King or Queen of Royal Flushes, it might be worth it to you.  In reality, however, you’ll also be ‘flushing’ your bankroll by doing this.

            That isn’t to say that there isn’t a right time to alter your strategy in order to make a Royal appear sooner.  The obvious case of this is when you are playing a Progressive, where the meter is considerably above the normal 800 for 1 payout.  The intriguing part about playing Progressives is that the strategy keeps changing as the meter increases.  Even under normal circumstances it would be unusual for the meter to get to double the normal payout, but nowadays with some professionals monitoring progressive payouts, the likelihood is even less.  As soon as the meter gets to the point where the game is positive, a team of Players can hit a bank of machines and just keep playing until the jackpot is hit. 

            The Expert Player realizes that as the jackpot goes up, the strategy changes and the frequency of a Royal Flush can increase, which can push the payback up even more.  Using Expert Strategy for a full-pay jacks or better machine will result in a Royal (on average) every 40,400 hands.   If the Royal is paying 1600 for 1, we alter our strategy to make a Royal appear (on average) every 32,700 hands.  This increase in frequency allows us to extract an additional 0.9% of payback out of the Royal Flush hand.  Of course, this change in strategy costs us about 0.7% of payback on all the other hands.  The net increase is 0.2%, however.  So, you can play the Progressive using the altered strategy at 99.5% or you can use standard (8-5) strategy and play it at 99.3%.  It doesn’t seem like much of a choice to me.

            So, what are some of the changes we use when playing a Progressive paying 1600 for 1 on a Royal?  One of the biggest is that the 3-Card Royal now outranks a High Pair.  Yep, this one is going to hurt.  You going to throw away a sure winner (High Pair) and go for the Royal Flush.  Your odds of hitting that Royal is a bit more than 1000 to 1.  But, it’s paying 1600 for 1!  Throw in the fact that you still have many chances to hit a Straight Flush, a Flush, a Straight, Trips, Two Pair and a High Pair and quite frankly, the math isn’t even close.  The 3-Card Royal has an expected value of more than 2, while the High Pair is down at 1.5.

            Another significant change in our strategy is that the A-10 Royal is now playable.  Normally, when playing jacks or better, we do NOT hold a 2-Card Royal consisting of A-10.  We only have 1 way to fill it for Straights and/or the Royal Flush (with the JQK), which greatly reduces its expected value.  However, with the Royal Flush’s payout pumped up to 1600, we’re still better off holding the 2-Card Royal vs. holding just the Ace.  Keep in mind, however, that this hand is just barely playable.  This means that many other combinations of cards might be held instead (such as a 3-Card Straight Flush), so don’t forget to look at your WHOLE hand before getting overly excited about a suited A-10.

            Besides learning some of the changes to the strategy for a Progressive, another key point is learned.  Every change to the paytable can impact the strategy.  Now, if you sit down and play a full-pay bonus poker game using jacks or better strategy, I’m not saying you’ll get wiped out in 10 minutes.  But, what is the point of learning strategy if you’re just going to wing it when you change which type of game you’re playing.  0.1% or 0.2% might not seem like a lot to give up – but in reality, this may increase your loss rate by 20-50%!

            One of the best ways to learn how to play all the different games out there is to learn the strategy tables from a book like Winning Strategies for Video Poker and then practice what you’ve learned on your PC using Masque’s Video Poker Strategy Pro.  For a limited time, we’re offering a package of both the book and the software for only $14.95.  For an additional $5 ($19.95 in total) we’ll also include Video Poker: America’s National Game of Chance which is 200 pages of Lenny Frome’s best articles, quizzes and stories.  If you’d like to order, please send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603. 

Royal Appearance

            Last week’s column was prompted by a reader who raised some concerns that Players who use their frequent player cards are somehow cheated by casinos.  The ‘proof’ of this is that some locals (i.e. frequent Players) don’t seem to get as many Royals as the tourists.  Previously, I had cited at least two reason for this. 

            The first is selective memory.  We tend to remember things we want to remember.  When we go through an extended cold streak, every other scream of “Royal” is burned into our brains.  I’m guessing that in the week you hit your last Royal, someone else did too that week, but it didn’t bother you one bit.  If you’ve gone a year without one, everytime someone gets one, it hits you like a ton of bricks.

            Secondly, even if you’re trying to be relatively objective about it, you also have to remember that ‘you’ are greatly outnumbered by ‘them’.  Even if there are a couple of you playing together, there are dozens if not hundreds of other people playing around you.  It is no surprise that they WILL actually get more Royals than your group will.

            There is, of course, another possibility – other people ARE actually get more Royals than you are!  So, am I buying into the whole ‘rigged’ video poker machine theory?  ABSOLUTELY NOT! 

            But, the number of Royals you get over an extended period of time is greatly influenced by the strategy you use.  So, there are two possibilities.  YOU may be using the wrong strategy which is reducing the probability of a Royal OR the other guy is using the wrong strategy which might INCREASE the probability of a Royal.

            Let’s look at these two scenarios.  The proper strategy for any particular video poker machine is one that maximizes the overall payback, not one that maximizes the probability of hitting a Royal.  What do you do when you’re dealt the following?

A♥       Q♥       10♥      5♥        5♠

            Do you hold the Low-Pair?  The 4-Card Flush?  The 3-Card Royal?

            The correct answer is the 3-Card Royal.  If you’re playing one of the other two, not only are you hurting yourself from a payback perspective, you’re lowering your chances of hitting a Royal.  By the way, the decision is not even close.  The expected value (EV) of the 3-Card Royal is 1.41.  The 4-Card Flush has an EV of 1.22 and the Low Pair a meager 0.82.

            So, if you’re not playing this hand correctly, don’t be surprised if some others around you are hitting more Royals.  Of course, they may have their own issues.  What do you do when you’re dealt the following?

A♥       Q♥       10♥      5♥        Q♠

            The correct answer is hold the High Pair with an expected value of 1.54.  Now, you may be doing this, but that ‘tourist’ behind you may not.  What is the impact of holding the 3-Card Royal.  Well, he’ll lower his overall expected payback, BUT he will increase his probability of hitting a Royal.

            The examples I used here are not the most common occurrences, so these will not make a big difference to the frequency of a Royal happening.  Far more common are the hands that include a 2-Card Royal that also include 3-Card and 4-Card Flushes and Straights.  I have little doubt that there are many novice Players who get Royal fever and just play every 2-Card Royal instead of 4-Card Straights and Flushes or 3-Card Straight Flushes.  Doing so, will make them hit more Royals than you will, but they won’t be any richer for it. 

            Under normal circumstances, for a jacks or better machine, a Royal should appear about once every 40,000 hands or so.  By altering one’s strategy it is very easy to reduce this to once every 30,000 hands or so, which is considerably more frequent.  But, it will come at a cost of lowering the payback by a significant amount too.  So, the next time you’re upset that someone else got a Royal, start worrying about how you’re playing and not what’s happening around the corner.  They may pay dearly for their Royal appearance.

           

To Card or Not to Card

            This past week I received an e-mail from a reader who wanted to know whether the casinos could essentially reward “non-frequent” players with better hands in video poker.  As we all know, the craze of the past decade or so is to have a frequent shopper card for each store.  My keyring is lined with them.  I’ve got one from grocery stores, drugstores, bookstores and countelss others.  Casinos are no different.  When you play, you put your frequent player card into the machine and it keeps track of how much you wager and in turn rewards you with points for comps, etc…

           

            So the question being asked is – can/do the casinos make the machines pay more for people who do NOT put a card in the machine.  The reader who sent this e-mail was echoing sentiments he has heard from other local and/or frequent Players.  He also stated that it ‘seems’ like more Royal Flushes go to non-regular Players.

           

            I could probably write several pages about this topic, looking at it from a variety of different angles.  I’ll try to hit the highlights of some of these today.  As I have stated many times in this column, it is the law in most casino jurisdictions (Las Vegas certainly included) that any video game that uses what appears to be an ordinary object (i.e. a deck of cards) MUST be completely random.  This means that at any point in time, the probability of any card not already dealt showing up is the same as any other card not already dealt showing up.  Given this, it is absolutely NOT possible to favor one set of Players over another.

            This is NOT to say that you can’t make a computer do this.   As an IT professional with over 20 years of experience, I know that it would be very easy to favor Players based on such criteria.  Even if it were legal to do so, I’m not so sure that I would necessarily favor the infrequent Player over the frequent Player at casino games.  As we all well know, many tourists will joyfully lose money at a posh casino as long as they can enjoy the marble columns while they are doing it.  Locals, on the other hand, tend to look for better paytables and care less about the physical surroundings.

            It is in this very topic that the three key components of Expert Strategy collide – knowing which games to play, knowing the right strategy and knowing what to expect.  My reader did not present any true evidence that one group of people are getting Royals at a higher rate than another.  He only stated that it ‘seemed’ that way.  Nothing makes the casinos happier than a Player doing something less than optimal because it feels right.  There is only ONE way for things to swing when a Player does this.  In the long run, the casinos will win more and the Player will win less.

            While the casinos have certainly cut back over the past few years on points, comps and cashback, there is still one simple math fact.  If we go with the notion that the casinos DO NOT play favorites based on whether or not the card is in the machine, then removing your card from the machine only serves one purposes.  You get an overall lower payback by not getting your comps and cashback.

            The decision to pull one’s card from the machine would appear to be based on the notion that it ‘seems’ as if others are getting more Royals and thus it MUST be because the house is favoring someone else.  All of us who have played for hours have gone through dry periods in which we’re sure that everytime we discard a King, it is replaced by a King – especially when drawing on a 4-Card Straight or 4-Card Flush.  Or we seem to be dealt an overabundance of a certain Low Pair which never seem to turn into trips.  A significant portion of this is simply our minds playing tricks on us.

            There is only one of you.  Even if you’re playing with a spouse or a friend or two, there is still only two or three of you.  Then there is the rest of the casino, which you ‘assume’ are not regulars – especially if you don’t remember seeing them all the time.  Even if they truly are NOT regulars and they are NOT playing with a card in the machine, there are still far more of them than there of you.  When you hit a Royal, you probably don’t notice all the people around you who haven’t hit them.  When you go through a rough patch, all of a sudden you notice every time someone else hits one. 

            Of course, there IS the possibility that other Players are getting Royals more frequently than you are – but it doesn’t mean the casinos are out to get you.  Nor does it mean that the other guy is doing himself any favors.  But, I’ll save that for next week!  In the meantime, leave your frequent Player card in the machine.  Don’t make a cold streak even worse by leaving your comps and cashback on the table.

The SWITCH is ON!

            My recent trip to Las Vegas was more personal than business, so I didn’t spend a lot of time scouting out new games.  One game that kept popping up without looking for it much was Blackjack Switch.  I found at least one table (and fairly crowded) in about every casino I went to.  I didn’t have a lot of time to see how people were playing it either.  I find it very hard to believe that most people know the right strategy for switching, although many hands are obvious.  I’m also guessing that many people were using whatever strategy they use for regular blackjack to guide them when to hit or stick and this could be rather problematic to their bankroll too.

            To refresh everyone’s memory, Blackjack Switch requires the Player to play two hands of blackjack.  After the initial 2 cards are dealt to everyone and the Dealer’s upcard is exposed, the Player has the option to request that the 2^nd card of each of his two hands be switched with one another.  So, if dealt a 10-6 and a 5-10, he can change this to be a 10-10 and a 5-6, which is quite a bit better.  The big tradeoff is that if the Dealer busts with a 22 it is considered a push to any Player’s non-bust hand except for a Natural Blackjack.  It is this rule that makes all the changes to our basic blackjack strategy.

            It is nearly impossible to describe the Switch strategy in a column like this.  With 10 possible upcards and a couple dozen different combinations of individual hands, there are literally thousands of possible combinations.  Instead, I have created a table of expected values for each combination and you need to add up the two values for your pre-switch hands and the two values for your potential post-switch hands – and whichever provides the higher expected value is the right strategy.  Again, many of the hands are obvious, so you won’t need to do this for those.

            Easier to describe is the new hit/stick strategy.  For starters, throw out most of what you think you know of blackjack strategy.  The Dealer busts with 22 a LOT of the time.  These hands becoming pushes means relying on the Dealer to bust to provide you with a win is greatly reduced.  As a result of this, we find that we Double Down and Split far less often – or more correctly, in far fewer circumstances.  We NEVER Double Down into a 10/Face or an Ace (not even with an 11).  The ONLY Double Down with Soft hands are a Soft 17 or 18 looking into a 5 or 6.  Splitting is reduced quite a bit as well.  The rule of ‘always’ splitting 8’s is gone.  Don’t split them into 10/Face or an Ace. 

            The interesting thing is that although there are far fewer conditions in which we Double Down, we don’t necessarily Double Down much less frequently.  As a result of Switching, we create the Double Down situations far more often.  We also wind up with many more strong no-hit hands – which is hardly a bad thing.

            The rules for hard hands only undergo a few changes.  Don’t yell at a Player for hitting a 12 into a 4 as that is the right move.  Hitting a 13 into a 2 is also correct.  However, 14 and above remains as per normal blackjack – only hit if the Dealer has a 7 through Ace as his upcard. 

            Blackjack Switch provides the opportunity for a Player to earn the same payback as regular blackjack – about 99.5% - while spicing up the game a bit.  The hit/stick strategy is actually probably a bit easier than regular blackjack, BUT it MUST be learned anew.  If you choose to use regular blackjack strategy on Blackjack switch, you will double the house advantage.  More critical is learning when to switch.  If you NEVER switched, you’d be giving the casino a nearly 10% advantage.  Of course, even if you just guessed at the switch strategy, you’d probably do better than that – but still far off from Expert Strategy.  Just making a handful of mistakes repeatedly could easily  double, triple or quadruple (or worse) the house advantage.

            A few months ago, I released Expert Strategy for Blackjack Switch.  It is a 14-page booklet that explains the rules of the game and how the strategies (both Switch and hit/stick) were developed.  It will also give you some idea of what to expect when you play it.  It comes with a full-color business-sized strategy card for you to take with you to the casino, which includes BOTH strategies on it.  It normally sells for $6.95, but for Gaming Today readers I will make it available for $5.95.  If you’d like to order ONLY the strategy card, it is $2.95 and if you’d like additional cards (when you buy the book), they are only $1.50 each.

            Send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603.  There are now about 150 Blackjack Switch tables out there.  Don’t be left behind – the Switch is ON!

We're Mad as Hell and We're Not Going to Take it Anymore!

            Thanks to Facebook, the average person now has the opportunity to reach out to many people very easily.  Many companies have a presence on Facebook, so if you want to ask a simple question you can do so easily and probably get a quick answer either from the company itself or another customer.  Of course, you also have the opportunity to let a company know when you are disappointed in its performance in some way – although, I can’t promise that they won’t quickly delete your post if they don’t like it. 

            Of course, a single person saying they don’t like something about a particular company probably won’t be very effective at getting the company to make changes.  Sometimes, what occurred was an aberration and a company will quickly rectify the situation in some way.  Unfortunately, many times, companies simply put policies in place that don’t really put their customers first.  They somehow get the idea in their heads that they can treat their customers any way they want and they’ll just keep coming back.

            The question is did they get this idea based on past experience or are they just using wishful thinking?  It is probably a combination of both, which has always bothered me quite a bit.  Why do people allow themselves to be treated poorly by a company that they are paying to do something?  It seems like as customers we have set our expectations so low that we’ll take anything that comes our way.  We have lost the art of a good effective boycott of a company that chooses to abuse its cash-paying customers!

            No, I don’t have a particular company in mind (at least not a Las Vegas casino).  We did just finish a rather eventful trip to Las Vegas, with both highs and lows in customer service.  In the end, our rental car company (mostly) came through after a flat tire left us stranded on I-15 near Flamingo.  A very heartfelt “THANK YOU” goes to the NV-DOT worker who came to our rescue!  As a result of the way we were treated by the rental car company, we very nearly were in a position to find a new regular company to use on our trips.  Fortunately, the manager stepped up and made amends for one of his employee’s poor behavior and judgment. 

            Still up in the air (pardon the pun) is how our airline will deal with a far worse situation.  I’ll save these details for a future column (or my blog!).  The bottom line is that the airline will either make the situation right or we’ll be looking for a different airline to use when we travel.  If you allow a company to treat you poorly and you just keep using them, then the company learns that they can treat you poorly with no consequences.

            So, what does this have to do with casinos and gambling?  Casinos are companies.  You are their customers.  If you don’t get treated the way you want to, you are well within your right to ask to be treated differently.  If what you are complaining about is a specific rude occurrence or employee, don’t hesitate to speak to a supervisor or manager.  While the casinos have tightened their belts greatly recently, most do not want to be known as a place that treats people badly.  A few years ago, I complained that my non-smoking room smelled a lot like smoke and I even found a cigarette butt near the window.  A half an hour later, my wife and I were being moved to a 1 Bedroom suite on the top floor.  All I asked for was a replacement room for the one I had booked!

            Sometimes, the problem is a casino policy.  These can be far tougher to get changed on short notice.  If the casino has decided to make significant changes to their cashback or comp policy, or slashes its paytables, you can voice your dislike, but it is not as likely that a manager can just restore your prior level of either.  They might be able to do something to make you feel a bit better if you ask, but at some point you will have to ask yourself if you want to ‘agree’ to this change by continuing to go to that casino or if you want to make your unhappiness clear by going elsewhere.  Just keep in mind that if you change nothing about your habits – that is you keep going back just as often and play just as much, you will be quietly telling the casino that the change is completely acceptable to you.  On the other hand, if enough people reduce or eliminate their trips to this casino, you may just find them changing their policy again – but this time in your favor.

            The bottom line is that every dollar you play is like a dollar spent at a retailer.  You choose where you play and how much you play.  There are literally dozens of casinos in Las Vegas, and although many are now owned by the same corporation, there is still enough competition to let a casino know that you’re not going to take it anymore and take your business elsewhere.  Don’t be afraid to speak with your dollars!

            Speaking of Facebook, if you get a chance, go on over to my FB page and ‘like’ it!

(http://www.facebook.com/pages/Gambatria/153757698005564).  You can also do this from my website at www.gambatria.com.

Time for a Break

           Does anyone know why there are 4 quarters in football or basketball?  I can understand a some reasons for a halftime, but what is the point of the roughly 2 minute break that splits each half into its own half?  If they played just one 30 minute half in football, or 24 minute half in basketball would it really change the outcome of any game?  Maybe the athletes need the 10-15 minute break in the middle of the game to catch their breaths or to have the coach have a better chance of analyzing what they are doing wrong or right, but I can’t help but feel that the majority of the reason for these breaks is to raise money by selling commercials.  My argument is only strengthened by the fact that basketball has even instituted the ‘TV timeout’ requiring the game to stop at certain intervals if one of the team’s has not called a timeout.

But, the purpose of this week’s column is not to complain about the amount of commercials in our sporting events, but to question the notion that taking some sort of break after a relatively short period of play serves no real purpose in terms of the outcome of the game.  The same is frequently true of video poker.  I certainly don’t advocate playing for hour after hour after hour without taking a break.  Video poker can be mentally exhausting given how challenging the strategy can sometimes be.  At the same time, believing that setting up artificial ‘breaks’ will somehow change the mathematical outcome (i.e. how much money you will win or lose) makes more sense in the NBA than it does in LV. 

Time outs in video poker can serve essentially two purposes.  The first is that it can refresh you if you are tired.  Playing video poker properly takes more energy than many other casino games.  It is one of the reasons it is not for everyone, because not everyone wants to think while they are being entertained.  If you find that you are making mistakes or simply not enjoying yourself, taking a break can be a good thing.  How long of a break?  I can’t answer that one.  If stretching your legs and coming back in 5 minutes clears your head, than that is long enough.  For others, they may want to catch a bite to eat.  For yet others, once they reach this point, it is time to go home, whether that be for the evening or for a month.  The length of the break exists only so that you can come back ready to play, mentally.  The actual length of the break (or even the existence of a break) makes no difference whatsoever from a mathematical perspective, unless you are making mistakes in your play.

The second reason for a break is a psychological one, which itself is broken into two possibilities.  The first is that you’ve lost a significant portion of your bankroll relatively quickly, and it might be a good time to stretch your legs.  I’m not buying into the notion that the machine needs to cycle or by moving to another machine you’ll somehow increase your chances of hitting the big hand.  Rather, repeatedly losing takes a toll on your mind.  You’ll get frustrated and either make mistakes accidentally, or decide to take chances you’d be better off not taking in some hope of getting all of your money back quickly.  This just leads to larger losses. 

The other side of the coins is that it is not a bad idea to take a break when you are winning also.  Most casino games are ‘negative’.  That is, you’re going to lose in the long run.  Video poker, when played expertly, should allow a Player to walk away a winner about 40% of the time for a reasonable length session (3 hours).  If you choose to make it a 6 hour session, the likelihood of winning over that time will decrease.  It’s nice to walk away a winner once in a while.

Again, I can’t give you a specific answer as to when to take break based on how much you’ve won or lost.  This is a personal decision based on your own psychological makeup.  Professional players can stay very focused even during a very poor session because they are playing hundreds of hours per year.  The recreational Player is not as likely to be able to do this.  You’re on vacation and you hope to win back the cost of the trip playing video poker.  You start off down, you get frustrated and you start taking more chances (i.e. not playing according to the strategy).  At this point, it is a good time to remember you are on vacation.  Go hit the pool and come back later or tomorrow when you’re in the right mindset to play and have fun.

One last point, I’d like to make for this week.  Earlier I stated that in a 3-hour session you’re likely to win about 40% of the time.  I’ve covered this topic before.  It is very easy to manipulate your sessions and your bankroll so that you win 90% of your sessions.  You’ll be able to boast to all your friends how you ‘beat the casinos’ most of the time.  Unfortunately, this may give you bragging rights, but doesn’t do anything for your bank account.  Your losing sessions will simply be that much larger than your winning sessions.  In the end, the amount of money you win will be based on the cards you are dealt and the way you play them – PERIOD.  It does not matter if you take no breaks or a hundred breaks.  If you play each hand the same way, you’ll have the same results whether it takes 100 seconds or 100 days to play those hands.  But, for those who want bragging rights, I'll soon review how to ‘beat the casino 90% of the time’.

That's Why They Call It Gambling

            I’m in Las Vegas this week, penning this column from my hotel room.  The other night, I was playing video poker at Sam’s Town, next to a guy who was playing single-line Multi-Strike video poker.  I’m familiar with how the game works, but I have to admit, my knowledge of the strategy changes for this intriguing game is extremely limited.  I know that you have to alter your strategy to increase win frequency at the expense of payback when you are on the lower 3 lines without having received a ‘Free Ride’.

            For those unfamiliar with the game, allow me to try and explain the game.  There are four ‘levels’ in Multi-Strike.  To move up to the next level, you have to get a winning hand on the prior level.  Each of the levels pay progressively more than the previous one.  Thus hands on Level 1 pay 1 times the paytable.  Level 2 hands pay 2 times the paytable.  Level 3 hands pay 4 times the paytable and Level 4 hands pay 8 times the paytable.  To play the game you have to wager at least 1 unit on EACH level.  Thus to play ‘max-coin’ you have to wager 20 units – 5 coins times 4 levels.  This means you are paying for a level that you may never reach for each hand.  On each level, you play a brand new hand of video poker. 

            Roughly speaking, a Player playing proper ‘normal’ video poker strategy will win 45% of his hands.  This can be raised a bit if you tweak the strategy to focus a bit more on winning as opposed to how much you win.  However, at 46-47%, you would get slaughtered playing Multi-Strike because the odds of winning the 3 hands at Levels 1 through 3 would not be enough to be worth putting up the extra coin each time.  Thus, the game also incorporates what is called a ‘Free Ride’.  This is randomly generated by the machine to give the Player an automatic trip to the next level.  The Player continues to play the level that gives him the Free Ride, but even if he loses the hand, he still proceeds to the next highest level.  The impact of this feature is to bring the win frequency very close to 50%.

            I’ve never analyzed Multi-Strike, so I can’t provide you with a payback of the game.  Also, there are numerous versions of the game to correspond to regular games (i.e. Jacks or Better, Bonus, Double Double, etc…).  Additionally, the game does not clearly provide the frequency of the Free Ride feature at each level which is required to calculation an accurate payback.  I have seen published numbers from IGT (maker of the game), but there is no way to know for sure if there aren’t different variations and which games are programmed for what frequency.

            Then again, the point of this particular column was not necessarily an analysis of Multi-Strike.  The Player I mentioned earlier came across an interesting hand.  He was dealt an Ace High Straight that was also a 4-Card Royal on Level 3.  The Straight paid 4 units times 4 (for Level 3) for a total of 16 units (I didn’t notice what denomination the guy was playing).  He now faced the choice of sticking with that win and guaranteeing a shot at Level 4, OR going for the Royal Flush which would pay 1000 units (250 times 4).  By going for the Royal, he would also risk not winning at all and thus, not being given an opportunity to play the Level 4 hand.

            First, I’d like to look at this as if it didn’t happen in Multi-Strike.  So, the question is, when dealt a Straight that is also a 4-Card Royal, what is the right play?  Keep in mind, in this particular case, the Player was NOT playing max-coin, so the payout for the Royal was ‘only’ 250.   To fully analyze this situation, we need to look at every possible outcome of going for the Royal.  However, even at a quick glance, we get our answer.  The Player is essentially risking 16 units to win 1000, which is more than a 60-fold increase.  With 47 cards remaining in the deck, he has a 1 in 47 chance of hitting the Royal, which means his potential winnings are greater than the risk.  This tells us that he should go for the Royal.  When we realize that he will also have an additional chance to get a Straight Flush, 7 more ways to get a Flush, 5 more ways to get a Straight and 9 ways to get a High Pair, the decision to go for the Royal becomes an easy one.   The expected value of going for the Royal is about 8.19, while holding the Straight was only 4.

            Of course, in the specific case I’ve spelled out, the decision was a bit tougher.  By going for the Royal, he still has 23 out of 47 chances to wind up a winner and get to Play Level 4.  But, by holding the Straight, he has a 100% chance of playing Level 4.  We cannot dismiss this from the equation.  The expected value for Level 4 is about 7.84 (assuming a 98% payback multiplied by 8).  However, this assumes that we definitely get to play it.  In the case of going for the Royal, we need to multiply this by 23 and divide by 47 to account for the probability of getting to Level 4.  This is only 3.84. 

            So, we need to add these amounts to the respective EVs stated earlier.  While the decision gets quite a bit closer, going for the Royal still edges out the Straight by about 0.19.  I have to admit that I didn’t exactly do this calculation in my head when the guy looked my way (not knowing who I was) and I said “I’d go for it.”  Good thing for me and for the guy playing that he hit the Royal!  Yes, folks – that’s why they call it gambling!

As Plain as the Nose on my Face!

            I have frequently stated in my column that the biggest difference between slots and video poker is that in video poker ‘everything is known’.  What does this mean?  Well, it DOES NOT mean that anyone knows exactly which cards are about to be dealt or drawn.  What it DOES mean is that because the cards are random, we know what will happen over the long run and we know the probability of winning hands forming.  Thus, we are able to create a strategy that maximizes the amount of money we can win by using these probabilities and the payouts of these winning hands.

            When you walk up to a Roulette Wheel, everything is known also – and fairly simplistic.  If you bet a single number (and assuming a single zero wheel), you have a 1 in 37 chance of winning.  If you bet ‘Odd’ or ‘Black’, you have an 18 in 37 chance of winning.  If you sit down at a Blackjack table you know that the probability of you getting a blackjack is about 4.75%.  This information is all known because you’re dealing with real life objects that have a clear probability and are completely random.

            The same is true of video poker.  The fact that it is a digital deck does not change the randomness.  Everything about the game would be the same if you could somehow play it with a real deck of cards.  The overall math is a bit more complex than figuring out the probability of a single number in Roulette or of getting a blackjack, but the concepts are the same.  Let’s start with a simple example.  Let’s say you are dealt the following:

3♥        4♦        5♣       6♠        10♥

            The play is fairly obvious.  Discard the 10 and go for the Straight.  What is the probability of drawing the Straight?  There are 8 cards that will complete it, with 47 possible cards to be drawn.  Thus, the probability is 8/47 or about 0.17.  With a payout of 4, we multiply this by the probability to arrive at the Expected Value (EV) of this hand of 0.68.

            What if we make the hand a bit more complex?  What if the 10 was another 6?  Now there are two possible plays.  We can do as we did before and go for the Straight or we can discard the 3-4-5 and hold the Low Pair.  We don’t have to guess what the right play is.  While the specific result for a single hand will be determined by the Random Number Generator of the machine, we can look at every possible outcome of each situation and determine which results in the higher Expected Value.  When we look at all the possible draws or use some combinatorial math, we find that starting from a Low Pair and drawing 3 cards (16,215 possible outcomes) will result in 45 Quads, 165 Full Houses, 1854 Trips, 2592 Two Pairs and 11,559 losing hands.  When we multiply each of these by the payouts of each hand, and divide the total by the total possibilities, we come up with our EV of a Low Pair, which is 0.82.

            This is considerably higher than the EV of the 4-Card Straight (0.68).  Thus, the proper play is to hold the Low Pair.  By looking at every possible (2,598,960), every possible way of playing each one (32) and every possible draw for each of these ways (varying depending on how many cards are drawn), we can figure out the probability of absolutely everything that can happen in video poker.  In total, we have to look at more than 675 BILLION combinations of Deals/Draws.  Fortunately, with the help of today’s computers, this really isn’t all that daunting of a task (and there are some shortcuts to help!).

            The important thing to realize is that there is no guesswork here.  There is hard, cold and very precise math based on a 52-card deck and the idea that the probability of any card appearing is the same as every other card.  A long time ago, I saw someone suggest that the way to tell if a slot machine is a ‘good one’ is to play 20 times and count the number of winners.  A machine set to pay more will have a higher win frequency than one set lower (I can’t even verify this much!), so based on how many winning hands you have in the 20 times gives you an idea of if the machine is a good payer or not!  HUH??

            Show me a video poker machine’s paytable and I’ll tell you the win frequency and the payback in a matter of minutes (okay, if it’s something new, it might take a bit longer!)  This can be done because there is nothing hidden in video poker.  The payback is known.  The hit frequency is known.  The strategy is known.  Everything is known!

            If you’d like to know more, one of the best ways to learn more about video poker is from my father’s book Video Poker: America’s National Game of Chance.  It is 200 pages of dozens of some of my father’s best articles about video poker, all geared to teaching you how to play in a more laid back way.  It retails for $19.95, but for a limited time, I’m making it available for ONLY $6 each or 2 for $10, which includes 1^st class shipping and handling.  Send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603.

Near Miss Adrenaline Rush

            The misconception about how slot machines work is truly staggering.  Recently I had a conversation about the current generation of video slots with some friends.  As I’ve stated many times before in my column, there seems to be near unanimous consensus that many of these video slots are so confusing that even knowledgeable people can’t figure out when they won and when they lost.  This, in my opinion, takes away from whatever ‘fun’ slots can be.  It does not change their very nature.

            One of my friends in this conversation remarked how with the older mechanical slots, at least you know what your chance were of getting a particular symbol!  I had to explain to this person that this was not the case at all!  While the new video slots may have 30 or 40 different symbols on a ‘reel’, and the older mechanical ones may have only 10 or 15, this doesn’t really change a thing about how they operate.  It only gives them less combinations to show the Player, but it has absolutely NOTHING to do with the odds of any particular set of symbols from being the final ‘hand’.

            Let me make sure everyone understands this completely.  Let’s take an older mechanical slot that has 12 different symbols on it.  For argument’s sake, let’s say they are Red 7, White 7, Blue 7, Triple Bar, Double Bar, Single Bar, Cherry, Plum, Orange, Lemon, Bell and space/nothing.  If each of these symbols appears on each reel exactly once, there would be 12 times 12 times 12 possible combinations of symbols, or 1728 combinations.  Assuming each symbol appears with the same probability, you’d get 3 Red 7s on average 1 in 1728 spins.  Of course, you’d also get 3 oranges just as often, which makes it difficult to pay 5 for one and 1000 for the other!

            So, very quickly we learn that the odds of each symbol appearing are not the same.  Perhaps the Cherry is programmed (YES, even on mechanical slots) to appear 20 times more often than a Red 7.  Well, this by itself is not very surprising.  Of course, since no one but the casino and/or the manufacturer know the specific programming, the Player has no way of knowing what the odds of anything are.  But, it doesn’t stop there.  The symbols on the reels are not programmed independently.  Rather, each of the 1728 possible combinations is assigned a probability of occurring (many of the combinations may have ZERO chance of occurring).  In this manner, the casino can control the result completely!  It is much more compelling for the Player to get Bar, Bar, Plum instead of Plum, Bar, Bar.  Once the Player sees Plum, Bar he knows he has lost.  But, with Bar, Bar his adrenaline starts pumping.  When that Plum shows up, the sense of just barely missing is in full force and the Player is compelled to try again because he ‘just barely missed!’

            Yes, I’m saying what you think I’m saying.  Near misses are programmed into slot machines.  I read an article a couple of years ago in The Economist that discussed how scientific testing shows that near misses can trigger a similar neurological response to actually winning.  So, by feeding you all those near misses, the casino is almost tricking you into feeling like you won.  Let me also be clear about another point.  This is absolutely and completely legal.  In reality, playing a slot machine is no different than buying a lottery scratch off ticket.  Whether you’ve won or lost is determined the moment you say ‘spin’.  You’ll get a few wins.  You’ll get some ugly losses.  Mostly, you’ll get a lot of just barely missed. 

            When we compare this to video poker, we find out that there is very little similarity.  Yes, the 5-card deal is determined the moment you say ‘Deal’, but the probability of each card being dealt is the same as every other card.  From there, you have 32 different ways you can play the hand, and the resulting draw will be based on randomness.  Each of the remaining 47 cards has the same probability as the others of showing up in the Draw.  Because of this, the ‘near misses’ you get in video poker are not pre-determined, but rather part of the excitement of a 5-card draw poker game.

            This is just one of the many reasons my father, Lenny Frome, felt that video poker should officially be declared America’s National Game of Chance.  There’s nothing rigged about it.  There are no purposeful near misses.  Everything about the game is known and it offers high paybacks for those who learn the strategy required to play it.  One of the best ways to learn more about video poker is from my father’s book Video Poker: America’s National Game of Chance.  It is 200 pages of dozens of some of my father’s best articles about video poker, all geared to teaching you how to play in a more laid back way.  It retails for $19.95, but for a limited time, I’m making it available for ONLY $6 each or 2 for $10, which includes 1^st class shipping and handling.  Send a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603.

Blurry Lines

            Recently, one of my ‘friends’ on my Gambatria Facebook page posted up a poll.  They asked people what they play when they go into the casino – table games, slots or other.  I wasn’t sure what to answer.  I tend to split most of my time between blackjack and video poker.  In the end, I decided that video poker was probably the most appropriate answer for me, though.  So, my first reaction was to check the ‘other’ box, but then I began to wonder if maybe the creator of the poll may have included video poker in the choice for ‘slots’.

            If you’ve read my column over the years, you know how much I hate it when people consider video poker to be slots.  They’ve been frequently categorized as such because of the physical similarity of the machines.  Once upon a time, slot machines meant mechanical reels in a wooden box, while video poker was a computer monitor in an identical wooden box.  Then slot machines went digital too and now both are essentially computers in a box.

            But, is this REALLY how we categorize casino games?  By physical characteristics?  It is ironic that originally video poker machines were put into slot-machine boxes and then over time, slot machines were put onto video poker computers in those same boxes.  While they are not so easy to find anymore, if a Player plays a stand-alone video blackjack machine are they playing slots because of the hardware?  Not in my book!

            As the technology of the casino has evolved, the lines have become even more blurred if we look only at the technology and/or hardware that the game is being played on.  Some jurisdictions don’t allow live dealers and/or actual cards, so they only allow some of the newer hardware in – fully electronic tables, where chips and cards are digital and there is either no dealer to speak of or perhaps just a moving image of one.  If you play blackjack on one of these machines are you still playing slots?  Or, are you only playing slots if the machine looks like a slot machine and you’re playing in a non-social environment?  On the other hand, if you’re sitting at something that looks like a blackjack table (or does it look like a set of new fangled slots all hooked together?) then you’re deemed to be playing a table game?

            These new electronic tables have proven the folly of considering a video poker machine to be a slot machine.  We can’t categorize games by the technology that they are played on.  A mistake was made a long time ago to not consider video poker machines as their very own category.   In most ways, they are actually far more like table games than they are slot machines. 

So, perhaps the real mistake was not considering video poker machines to be slots, but to not recognize that slot machines are like nothing else in the casino industry.  They are truly what their long nickname implies – one-armed bandits (only they no longer even have the one-arm!)

            When you sit down at a table game or a video poker machine, I can tell you the exact payback of every wager on the table.  Some of the wagers require learning a complex strategy, others are simple and yet others require no strategy at all.  But, even this last category has known probabilities for each of the paying hands.  When you play Pair Plus (of Three Card Poker) you have nothing to do, but you know exactly what the odds of getting a Three of a Kind is.

            Video poker fits this mold perfectly.  In fact, the strategy required to play video poker is on the complex end of the scale.  It could be argued that this is the exact reason why it was created for a digital platform.  In theory, a casino could put out a blackjack table and deal a paytable version of draw poker.  Each Player could get five cards face down and discard as few or as many as they want.  The payback of this game would be identical to that of a video poker game with the same paytable.  Voila!  ‘Video poker’ is now a table game!

            None of this is true for slots.  Not only is there no strategy whatsoever, you also have absolutely no way of knowing what the payback of a machine.  Two machines sitting side by side appearing to be identical could be set to pay either identical paybacks or paybacks differing by 10% or more!  A machine could be changed overnight to pay 10% less than it was set to the day before and there’s no way of you knowing this.  Absolutely NOTHING is know about the probabilities of a slot machine by the Player and there is no way to get this information. 

            Saying that video poker is slots would be like saying the Space Shuttle and a coffee maker are the same thing because they are both machines.  It just doesn’t add up.  To help you better understand video poker machines and to break the slot habit, our special for June continues.  You can get Expert Video Poker for Las Vegas for just $7.95 (reg $9.95) by sending a check or money order to Compu-Flyers, P.O. Box 132, Bogota, NJ 07603.  

Don't Be Timid when Playing Ultimate Texas Hold'em

             This may come as a surprise to some of you, but Texas Hold’em has been played in poker rooms for a very long time.  However, it was not the primary game until recently.  When you said you were going to play Poker, it mostly mean 7-card Stud.  Secondary to that were the Texas Hold’em and Omaha tables.  I’m not really sure what got the Texas Hold’em craze going, but I’ve long suspected it was a few famous people who started playing it and all of a sudden, a game barely heard of became the game you had to play.

            Once Texas Hold’em became popular, it was no surprise that table games for the casino floor would try and capitalize on this popularity.  There have been several attempts to create a game that somehow captures the essence of Texas Hold’em.   The most successful, but not the first out, has been Shuffle Master’s Ultimate Texas Hold’em (UTH).  UTH was one of the first truly successful games that I personally worked on, and hopefully aided in its creation. 

            What makes UTH so unique is its betting structure.  You basically get one chance to make a wager beyond your initial wager.  But, you can make this wager at three different points.  The earlier you make the wager, the more you can bet.  Another relatively unique feature about UTH is that you don’t have to decide if you want to Fold until you’ve seen all your cards.  To begin play, the Player makes an Ante and an equal-sized Blind wager.  The Player also has the option to make an paytable sidebet wager.  The Player is then dealt 2 cards faced down.  He can now check or wager 4x his Ante.  The Dealer will then expose 3 community cards.  At this point, if the Player has already wagered 4x, he is done.  If he checked, he many now check again or wager 2x his Ante.  The Dealer exposes the final 2 community cards.  The Player who has already wagered is done.  The Player who checked twice must now either Fold or make a bet equal to 1x his Ante.

            The Dealer will expose his two cards.  If the Dealer does not have at least a Pair, the Ante pushes.  If the Dealer’s best 5-card hand beats the Player’s best 5-card hand, the Player loses all wagers (except the Ante as just described).  If the Player’s hand beats the Dealer’s hand, the Player wins even money on the Ante (unless the Dealer’s hand did not qualify, in which case it pushes).  The Blind bet pushes, unless the Player won with a Straight or Better, in which case it will pay according to the paytable in use.  The Play bet (1x – 4x) will pay even money. 

            UTH hit the casinos about 5 years ago and now has over 500 tables, making it one of the most successful proprietary table games of all time.  The full strategy for the game is extremely complex and somewhat fuzzy.  The unique betting structure makes it difficult to determine in all cases whether your are better off betting more now or waiting for more information and betting less.  Also, any game that uses community cards in a head-to-head game creates challenges in determining when to wager.  Stating to ‘bet’ when you have a Pair of Aces becomes impossible because it might be the community cards that has the Pair, while you’re left holding a 2 and 6 in your hand!  Your hand is quite worthless at that point!

            Ironically, it is the first decision point (to check or bet 4x) that was the easiest one to analyze.  With only your pocket cards as your guide, the decision becomes a relatively simple yes or no answer.  From talking to many Players, one thing has also become very clear.  Most Players are playing FAR TOO TIMIDLY than they should.  Proper strategy for the first wager dictates that you should bet 4x a whopping 38% of the time.   UTH boasts a payback of at least 99.25%, but if you shy away from betting 4x, you’re going to cut into this significantly.

            If there ever was a game where discipline is needed, this is it.  Between the Ante, Blind, Play and sidebet, you could easily have 7 units on the table – 38% of the time.  This is not the game to bring $100 to a $5 table and think you are properly bankrolled.  But, the math is the math and if you choose to wait to see how things play out, you might win more hands, but win less money.  Most Texas Hold’em players know that the secret to winning is that you don’t win a lot of hands, but you win a lot of money when you do.  The same can be said for UTH.

            So, without further ado, here is the strategy for the first decision point of UTH:

q  If you are dealt a Pair of 3’s or higher, bet 4x.

q  If you are dealt an Ace, bet 4x.

q  If you are dealt a suited K-X, where X is any card of the same suit, bet 4x.

q  If you are dealt a suited Q-X, where X is greater than a 4, bet 4x.

q  If you are dealt a suited J-X, where X is greater than a 7, bet 4x.

q  If you are dealt an unsuited K-X, where X is greater than a 4, bet 4x.

q  If you are dealt an unsuited Q-X, where X is greater than a 7, bet 4x.

q  If you are deal an unsuited J-10, bet 4x

I know I’ve promised for a long time that I’m working on a booklet for UTH and I have finally started the work.  Hopefully, I’ll get it done by the end of the summer.

For more information on UTH and other games, head over to my website at www.gambatria.com 

Counting on Strategy

For those of you who follow the financial pages, you know that last month, the Tropicana in Atlantic City reported that it actually LOST money on its blackjack tables.  This is not a common occurrence.  In fact, it may never have happened before for such a sizable casino.  At the time, they reported that a single Player had won about $5 million dollars playing hands of about $100,000 per hand.  The casino tried to chalk this up to 'bad luck' (on their part).  My first reaction when I read the story was either cheating or counting.

This week, the Press of Atlantic City reported that this same Player had taken two other casinos for several million as well.  They also identified (and interviewed) the Player.  His name is Don Johnson (no, not the one from Miami Vice).  He is the CEO of a company that uses computer-assisted wagering programs for horse racing. Hmmm?!

Mr. Johnson states in the article that he does not cheat.  He simply beats the casino using his skill and a sufficiently sized bankroll.  He also freely admits that in between his wins he's had some significant losses, but he declines to talk about the size of those losses.  Having no reason to doubt him and realizing that his story is quite plausible, I believe we may have stumbled upon one of the best Blackjack Players in the world.

I'm sure that Mr. Johnson has no idea who I am and I'm certainly not suggesting that he endorses any of my strategies, but his story still reinforces so much of Expert Strategy that I felt the need to comment.

Mr. Johnson knew which game to play - Blackjack.  Blackjack affords the player the opportunity to earn a payback of 99.5% by playing proper basic strategy - which is really not all that hard to learn.  Many casinos will even allow Players to have strategy cards with them as long as it doesn't slow up the game.  

Mr. Johnson clearly knew the right strategy to play.  I have no doubt that he knows basic strategy and then some.  Even without card counting, there are some subtle strategy points that an expert would utilize that the average Player would not.  However, these will NOT turn the game positive.  The only way a Player might be able to turn the tables on the casino is to count cards and to adjust both the wager size and the hit/stick strategy accordingly.  Of course, let's not kid ourselves.  This will NOT turn Blackjack into a 105% game.  With just the right changes, a Player might be able to flip the advantage to his own direction - i.e. 100.5%.

That brings me to the other key point that Mr. Johnson raises in his interview.  He was properly BANKROLLED.  Playing a 100.5% or even a 102% game does not mean that the Player will always win or that his session will go in only one direction.  Just as easily as a Player can win playing a 99.5% game, he can lose playing a 100.5%.  However, when you are playing a 100.5% game, you know that the longer you play, the more likely you are going to win.  So, the key is making sure your bankroll lasts long enough to sustain you through a rough patch.  If you're planning on playing $100K per hand, you better show up with more than $1 million.

It took a great deal of knowledge and discipline for Mr. Johnson to do what he did.  Many have tried a variety of card counting schemes with some success, but not too many are known to have taken the casinos for as much as $15 million.  Of course, a portion of this may have been an element of surprise.  The casinos did not know who he was or what he was capable of, so they gladly let him throw his 100K down at a time and probably figured they were about to make a lot of money.

The casinos were so unprepared that at least one of them agreed beforehand to forgive 20% of his losses.  So, if he had walked away down $2 million, they would have given him $400K back.  Clearly the casinos did not do their homework on this guy.  Kind of like facing Nolan Ryan in his prime and saying he can start the count at 0-1!